Surge in US petrol prices deepens political peril for Trump over Iran

March 17, 2026

President Trump is facing critical decisions three weeks into a US-Israeli military operation against Iran that appears to be lasting longer than initially anticipated. While Trump publicly discusses various topics and maintains his usual demeanor, he has already postponed a China trip and attempted to form an international coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though most nations have declined participation. The president must now choose between committing more US forces to secure the strait—risking American casualties and political backlash—or declaring victory and withdrawing despite Iran's continued threats to oil shipping.

Who is affected

President Donald Trump and his administration
US military personnel, including 5,000 Marines ordered from Japan to the Middle East
American consumers facing higher gas prices (currently $3.72/gallon)
Trump's core supporters, centrist Republicans, and independent voters
Countries invited to join the coalition: China, France, Japan, South Korea, UK, Australia, and European powers
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other world leaders
Ships and nations dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for oil transit (20% of world's oil supply passes through)
Republicans facing political consequences in November midterm elections

What action is being taken

The US is conducting Operation Epic Fury against Iran alongside Israel
Trump postponed his early April China trip by one month
The US is destroying Iran's minelaying ships
Trump ordered a Marine amphibious unit with 5,000 soldiers and sailors to move from Japan to the Middle East
Trump is attempting to form a coalition to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian forces are threatening and attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz

Why it matters

This conflict represents a critical juncture that could define Trump's presidency, as wars have historically consumed previous administrations regardless of initial intentions. The situation threatens Trump's political standing through multiple channels: rising gas prices directly undermine his affordability agenda at a time when Americans prioritize cost-of-living concerns, his approval ratings are already in the low 40% range, and any expansion of military operations could violate campaign promises to avoid foreign wars. The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz poses global economic consequences given that 20% of the world's oil supply transits through it. Additionally, Trump faces a no-win scenario where escalation risks American casualties and political backlash, while withdrawal without resolving the Iranian threat would waste billions of dollars without altering the Middle East power balance or lowering oil prices.

What's next

Trump must decide whether to more fully commit the US Navy to securing the Strait of Hormuz
Trump could potentially deploy ground forces to secure the strait, control Iranian oil terminals, or dismantle Iran's nuclear program components
Trump could alternatively declare victory and wrap up the American military campaign
The November midterm congressional elections will occur in seven months, providing a timeline for political consequences
Trump has approximately seven months to find a resolution before midterm elections

Read full article from source: BBC